Analysis of the Causality Relationship between Brent Crude Oil Prices and Energy Import in Turkey Under Structural Breaks

Abstract

Turkey, struggling with the problem of high current account deficit, is an energy dependent country due to lack of oil reserves. Therefore, the changes in energy prices do have impacts on balance of payments through import channel. Considering that energy imports constitutes the biggest share of current account deficit, it is expected that the rise in oil prices will increase the imports upwards. The purpose of this study is to analyze the causality relationship from Brent crude oil prices to energy import by using the monthly data in the period of 2006:08-2018:12. The unit root properties of the series are tested by using Fourier KPSS (2006) unit root test and the causality relationship between the series is investigated by employing Fourier Granger (2016) causality test. Both these tests take into account the impact of multiple structural breaks. The results indicate that there is a causality relationship from Brent crude oil prices to energy import in Turkey in the relevant period.